Weekly grain report

Byron Behne watches the grain markets for the Odessa Union Warehouse.

5/10/13: The USDA supply and demand report was not very kind to the market on Friday as prices basically lost all their gains from Thursday. The major factor was next year's corn ending stocks projected at over 2 billion bushels versus this year’s 759 million. The USDA did drop their projected yield down to 158 from 164 which was projected early on at their February outlook conference. Soybean stocks also see a large jump doubling next year's ending stocks to use ratio versus this year. Wheat production was cut a couple hundred million bushels but received a nearly as large cut to projected demand leaving a burdensome 29.8% stocks to use ratio which is not much lower than this year’s. The world numbers were bearish for everything with wheat production expected to bounce back in a big way in Russia and the Black Sea region. From here on out it’s basically up to the weather which is always volatile.

5/16/13: The grain markets have sagged the past two days on better planting progress expected for Monday's conditions report. There really isn’t much going on right now besides rolling with the latest weather forecasts. The government is looking for 1.5 million bushels of soft white to donate to Yemen and Bangladesh. Remaining old crop supplies of white wheat are tight and the basis versus Chicago futures has improved about 20 cents lately as a result.

5/20/13: The grain markets dipped early on in the day but rallied to close nearly unchanged on the day. Planting progress for corn came in at a higher than expected 71% due to matching the one-week record for planting pace last week. This should pressure new crop prices for corn and other grains. The winter wheat condition index saw another 2% slide into the poor to very poor categories as worsening conditions in HRW areas and the PNW outweighed improvements in SRW country. White wheat exports last week were a pitiful 54,000 bushels, none of which went out of Portland. Demand continues to lack.

5/21/13: Once again the grains tried to dip hard on Tuesday but managed to cut most of their losses by the close of trading. Strangely, despite the huge planting progress number released yesterday, new-crop corn closed unchanged while old-crop lost nine cents in Chicago. The government’s donation tender for soft white for Yemen and Bangladesh takes place tomorrow, along with regular Japanese business.